ESPN SportsNation Super Bowl Preview (Part 1 of 2)

Here, in these next two posts, I give you a piece of my Super Bowl XLIII Preview. Both of these two are statistics I have found during ridiculous ESPN SportsNation polls and rankings. In this first post of a two-parter, we look at allegedly real prop bets. I don’t know why anyone would bet money on some of this stuff. Unless, of course, you’re a degenerate gambler. I mean, some of this crap is a difference of a yard. A single yard! An odd number of yards or an even number of yards!
From the poll,

“The Super Bowl is the grandest event in American sports, making it the perfect place to find people wagering on the most insignificant of minutiae. That’s right, it’s Super Bowl prop bets!
What songs will Bruce Springsteen favor us with at halftime? How many times will the chain gang take the field to measure for first downs? And how the heck do Canadian NHL teams factor into this? Just about every angle of Super Bowl XLIII has been studied and put under a microscope for you to make a choice that could have you celebrating an otherwise insignificant play or crying over song selection.
While we don’t endorse putting your hard-earned money at risk, we do welcome you to partake in SportsNation’s poll and give yourself a few more things to watch for Sunday night, in addition to Kurt Warner and the Cardinals’ efforts to solve the Steelers’ defense.
Below are actual prop bets we found while speeding down the information highway”

My answer in bold.
1. Which playlist will Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band play at halftime?
40.3% Any other combination not listed
21.9% 1-Born in the USA 2-Thunder Road 3-Rosalita 4-My Lucky Day
12.5% 1-Glory Days 2-Born to Run 3-The Rising 4-Working on a Dream
9.0% 1-Glory Days 2-My Lucky Day 3-Badlands 4-Born to Run
5.6% 1-Born to Run 2-Dancing in the Dark 3-Radio Nowhere 4-The Rising
4.9% 1-Rosalita 2-The Wrestler 3-Glory Days 4-Born to Run
3.7% 1-Born to Run 2-Rosalita 3-Working on a Dream 4-The Rising
2.1% 1-The Rising 2-Darkness on the Edge of Town 3-Working on a Dream 4-Hungry Heart
This one is basically because of this quote I found over at SI’s Super Blog:

“‘Really, why we said yes this year was because, we have a new album coming out!’ Springsteen said, laughing at his own punch line. ‘C’mon. There’s a new record in the stores. It just happened to come out this past week. So we have our mercenary reasons of course. Besides our deep love of football.'”

It would make sense for the band to market the new album, and my choice is the only one including “The Wrestler,” the biggest hit from Working On a Dream. (I guess they couldn’t give the same name to the hit song, the movie the song is based on, and the album.) That, and my guess is the best combination of Bruce songs, in my opinion. But the chances that any of those seven playlists will be the exact order that the four songs will be played has to be really small, right? (Update: I just found this Rolling Stone article very subtly hinting at what the playlist might (or will) be. There’s gambling fallout, too. I never thought a music magazine would ever affect football betting in Las Vegas.)

2. Will Arizona successfully convert at least one fourth down?
69.5% Yes
30.5% No
I think that there will be at least one time in the fourth quarter that they will go for it on fourth down, and need to convert to stay in the game. There may even be a 4th-and-inches play that they’ll go for it on. I think they will make at least one of those. If the Cards win, Kurt’s kids get a puppy! You don’t get in between fate and a puppy! (Later, I will, as you will soon see.)

3. What will be the total number of chain measurements?
48.6% 3
24.4% 4
24.1% 2
2.5% 1
0.4% 0
Complete guess #1!

4. Which combination of American Idol and the Super Bowl will win this year?
35.3% Female American Idol and Pittsburgh Steelers

33.9%	Female American Idol and Arizona Cardinals
16.9%	Male American Idol and Pittsburgh Steelers
13.9%	Male American Idol and Arizona Cardinals

A shockingly large number of people think the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at winning. I think those people are crazy.

5. What will the yardage be on the longest successful field goal in the game?
68.9% Odd
31.1% Even
You know what? I think it’ll be a 49-yarder. Or maybe 51. 63? I have no idea. I also don’t really understand why this one is such a landslide. I can’t imagine what the line is on this. And how much will people who have money on the game be screaming at the TV when they have odd with the Steelers at the Cards’ 38-yard line and they only pick up one yard on 2nd down? I can’t think of anyone more fun to watch the Super Bowl with (besides friends, family, and strangers, of course) than someone who made like, 10 prop bets on the game.

6. What will be the total number of Steelers players to make a reception?
78.2% Over 6.5
21.8% Under 6.5
6.5 really is the perfect number for this bet, because when I was voting, I was torn between 6 and 7. It doesn’t even matter that I can’t think of 7 Steelers who have caught passes this season. I’m calling it now, Limas Sweed will make a reception. Yes, I picked the guy who I’ve never heard of and couldn’t tell you if he was a wide receiver or tight end. Or running back. Or, for whatever reason, offensive lineman/tackle/guard.

7. Which team will call for a fair catch first?
52.8% Cardinals
47.2% Steelers
Complete guess #2!

8. Which will occur first for Kurt Warner?
74.8% Throw a touchdown pass
25.2% Throw an interception

(Not Really That) Interesting Kurt Warner Stats of the Day:
2008 Touchdowns: 30

2008 Interceptions: 14

First-half Touchdowns: 13

First-half interceptions: 9

9. Will any field goal attempt hit an upright or the crossbar and be unsuccessful?
93.3% No
6.7% Yes
I don’t know exactly what the numbers are, but I have to think that the percentage of field goals that hit the goal post can’t be more than about 2% or so. What would be the pay-off on this one, by the way?

10. Which player will have the most receiving yards?
55.0% Anquan Boldin (-2.5 receiving yards)
45.0% Santonio Holmes (+2.5 receiving yards)
Now, this is a very interesting question. So many parts of the game will play into it. You might think that the Pittsburgh defense will limit the entire Arizona offense. You may also think that the Steelers will double- or even triple-team Fitzgerald, opening up some room for Boldin to make some big catches. Or, you could still believe that Pittsburgh will obliterate the potentially vulnerable Arizona D. I have no idea what to think.

11. What will be the total number of sacks in the game?
60.5% Over 6.5
39.5% Under 6.5
Because, this just in… hold the presses… The Steelers defense is really good! And the Cardinals defense is suddenly, inexplicably good!

12. Who will have more points?
79.3% LeBron James (-1.5) vs. Pistons
20.7% Steelers
Come on! LeBron is The King! I’ll bet you wouldn’t want to wake up and see him creepily standing next to you, handing you a delicious breakfast sandwich. Oh, I’m sorry. Did I say wake up and see him creepily standing next to you, handing you a delicious breakfast sandwich? I meant be in a commercial where he dreams he’s playing for the football team a mile across town. Or wear Yankees hats to Indians games. Or have photos of him playing for the Browns leaked onto the Internet.

13. Which number will be greater?
54.8% Goals by Canadian NHL teams (Senators, Canadiens, Oilers)
45.2% Punts by Steelers and Cardinals
Just because I don’t think there’ll be a whole ton of scoring in this game.

14. What will be the first penalty of the game?

41.9%	False start (offense)/Offside kicking team
29.4%	Offensive holding
9.9%	Illegal block in the back
4.4%	Offside/neutral zone infraction/encroachment (defense)
3.1%	Defensive holding
2.8%	Horse-collar tackle
1.5%	Defensive pass (or fair catch) interference
1.3%	Illegal shift/illegal motion at snap/illegal formation or procedure
1.0%	Illegal contact, block below the waist, chop block or clipping
0.9%	Roughing the passer
0.8%	Unnecessary roughness/unsportsmanlike conduct
0.8%	Tripping
0.8%	Face mask/illegal use of hands/hands to the face
0.4%	Offensive (or kicking team) delay of game
0.3%	Roughing the kicker
0.2%	Offensive pass interference
0.2%	Intentional grounding
0.2%	Ineligible receiver
0.1%	Too many men on the field (or in the huddle)
0.1%	Running into the kicker

Honestly, who cares about this?

15. What will be the exact margin of victory?

27.9%	Steelers by 7-12 points
22.4%	Cardinals by 7-12 points
22.3%	Cardinals by 1-6 points
10.3%	Steelers by 1-6 points
8.5%	Steelers by 13-18 points
2.7%	Cardinals by 13-18 points
1.7%	Cardinals by 43 or more points
1.3%	Steelers by 19-24 points
0.8%	Steelers by 43 or more points
0.5%	Cardinals by 19-24 points
0.4%	Steelers by 25-30 points
0.3%	Steelers by 31-36 points
0.3%	Steelers by 37-42 points
0.2%	Cardinals by 25-30 points
0.1%	Cardinals by 31-36 points
0.1%	Cardinals by 37-42 points

I really do think that this game will be a Steelers 1-12 point win. I don’t think the Cardinals have a chance at winning by more than a single score, because they would have to beat up on the NFL’s #1 defense to do that. Poet Maya Angelou, former pitcher Ralph Branca, actress and cookie heiress Stacy Keibler, and singer Andy Williams disagree with me on that. I also don’t think that either team will score more than 30 points. The Steelers have had good defense all season, and the Cardinals found the defense they had lost in the sofa ten years ago, except they had thought that it was a 5-dollar bill they lost, when it’s actually more comparable to like, a gazillion-billion-dollar bill. (That’s right! That was another round of America’s least favorite blog game, “Let’s Make Bad Metaphors and Stretch Them to Try to Make Them Make Sense,” which in contrast, is actually much better than “Let’s Make Way Too Long Names For Fake Games.”)

My Sleeper Prop Bet (From msnbc.com’s Prop Betting Sheet)
Will Either Team Have Three Unanswered Scores?
Yes -220
No +180
If either team has three unanswered scores, then that would mean that would score between 9 and 24 unanswered points, which would probably be the result of bad defense, which is something that I don’t think you will be able to find in this game.

Strange Fans Acting Strange
According to this poll, 53% of fans think the Cardinals will win outright. Which in my own personal opinion is crazy, since they are 7-point dogs. But now, lookey here, at ESPN’s Streak for the Cash, and you will find a much more sensible voting: 63.2% for the Steel Men. But it is still weird nonetheless when some 300,000-odd ESPN.com users pick the heavy underdog, and then the same people vote in the complete other direction.